Kenya Warned of Severe Flooding Risk During October–December Rains

Kenya is facing a heightened risk of severe flooding during the October–December 2026 rainfall season, with experts warning of possible landslides, disease outbreaks, damage to farms and destruction of critical infrastructure.

An estimated 1.5 million Kenyans could be affected by flooding, with Tana River, Garissa, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Nairobi, Busia, Kisumu, Narok, Mombasa and Baringo among the counties identified as potentially vulnerable.

Landslides are also a major concern. Experts estimate that approximately 45 percent of households in landslide-prone counties could face exposure, particularly in Murang’a, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kiambu, Baringo, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi.

Some parts of the country could experience several consecutive days of rainfall, with daily totals ranging between 20mm and 50mm, increasing the likelihood of flooding and related disruptions.

The health sector could also come under pressure, with another 1.5 million households potentially exposed to water-borne and vector-borne diseases, especially across the North Eastern, coastal and Lake Basin regions.

The Climate Prediction and Applications Centre has reportedly identified indicators of a very strong El Niño occurring alongside a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—weather patterns that could significantly influence rainfall across East Africa.

Authorities and residents in vulnerable areas are therefore being urged to strengthen preparedness measures ahead of the October–December rains. #Muranga #Nairobi #Embu